2026-05-03 Week Ahead
Last Week
FOMC and 5 of the Mag 7 reported last week with SPY ending the week up 1.1% from Monday open to Friday close. All sectors with the exception of materials were higher as well. Energy led the sectors with Information Technology, Financials, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples leading SPY’s gains.
Calendar
Treasury refunding est/announcement, ISM Services PMI, NFP (and all its supporting data) this week on the calendar. Earnings reports from Palantir/AMD/arm/CoreWeave as we get to wrapping up the bulk of earnings this week. Middle East headlines still pouring in all day, every day. New tariffs on autos from Europe announced on Friday. Plenty of catalysts to provide some volatility this week after last week’s breakouts.
Context
Net buying last week across all sectors except for materials (XLB) based on Monday open to Friday close. Yet, not much movement in the market breadth. I would like to see from movement of SPX components over their respective 20d/50d/200d moving averages.
Net Gamma is approaching the highs of 2025 and with the big drop in trailing month volatility under the trailing quarter volatility presents the environment I like to call “swimming in jello.” The market should be well supplied with liquidity. VIXM/VIXY ratio and VVIX/VIX ratio also support this idea. Approaching levels of overbought but not quite there and no cracks to see.
This week will also finish up the majority of S&P 500 earnings which have been good and earnings estimates moving forward generally adjusted higher. The breakout appears to be related to this as the market ignores oil over $100/bbl, interest rates higher, and inflation rearing its ugly head again.
SPY
Monthly - one time framing higher
Weekly - one time framing higher
Daily - one time framing higher
SPY has a weekly expected move of about +/- 11 points. Rounding things up the expected range of 710-732. The weekly expected range appears bullish to start the week. Realizing expected range to the upside produces a new all time high and expansion higher on both monthly and weekly time frames. Realizing the expected move to the downside produces a back test of the 8d ema (which held all last week) but SPY would have to break below expected range to break previous week low.
