2026-04-26 Week Ahead

Last Week

All time highs on SPY with 0.73% gain from weekly open to weekly close. Information Technology (XLK) produced most of the gains with a 3.84% gain from weekly open to weekly close. This was enough to absorb the weakness in Financials (XLF), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY.)

Looking across all sectors things appear neutral and with 5 big earnings reports next week, I hate to say it, but next week is pivotal (aren’t they all?)

Calendar

The calendar next week is filled with FOMC, PCE, PMI, and earnings. Other than the big 5 reports about 20% of the S&P 500 will be reporting. Generally, earnings have been positive.

If I’m planning for a move (forgetting middle east headlines) I would say the last half of the week is where a directional move would come from.

Context

Information Technology (XLK) has been the leader in producing new all time highs. Last week, I was looking for a bit of a reset on breadth reads which occurred. Now it is time to see if we can get some buying in the other sectors. Information Technology (XLK) is extended and with 5 big earnings reports this week it feels like maybe there was buying into the earnings which may setup for disappoint in XLK. Does the market rotate into the other sectors or just leave risk assets into safer havens at all time highs.

Realized volatility dropping will most likely bring in the stink bid from price agnostic risk parity flows and with elevated Gamma the buy the dip/sell the rip looks good heading into the week. At least until Wednesday. FOMC rug pull? If so, do earning absorb the rug pull?

Active managers apparently loaded the boat last week. They still have a bit of room but getting up there at 94.15.

This week or next I wouldn’t be surprised for a break of the one time framing higher on the weekly in order to generate a higher low on the weekly and get a possible downtrend on the daily. One day at a time.

VIX reads pushed out of bearishness, flipped to bullishness, and now appear more neutral.

Was last week’s balancing act enough to reset things for the next push higher? Or do we need to get our higher low on the weekly established first? It will take quite the reversal for me to turn bearish.

SPY

Monthly - one time framing up

Weekly - one time framing up

Daily - one time framing up

Weekly expected move is about +/- 13 points. Realizing the expected move to the upside produces new all time highs and continues the monthly expansion and one time framing up on weekly. Realizing the expected move to the downside produces and equal low on the weekly and a slight overshoot produces a backtest of previous all time highs.

Last week, I was looking for a pullback off the previous week high because SPY was extended off the 8d EMA. SPY did pullback on Tuesday for the gap fill and set a balance for the week. Thursday did get the tag back to the rising 8D ema on Thursday before Friday breaks the 5d balance to the upside producing a new all time high and close outside previous week range.